Analysis for Latin America

Delta launches attack on JetBlue through new leisure push from New York

Delta Air Lines is targeting JetBlue Airways through new and bolstered flights being introduced to Florida and the Caribbean from New York’s LaGuardia and JFK airports in late 2012 and early 2013. Delta’s move is a departure from its recent New York strategy of using slots obtained at LaGuardia to capture business travellers from smaller markets that prefer the convenience of getting in and out of the airport closest to downtown Manhattan. But in its latest offensive Delta is targeting leisure markets where JetBlue is deeply entrenched, and in some cases breaking JetBlue’s monopoly on those routes.

Delta in Mar-2012 introduced new flights from LaGuardia to 15 markets as it began developing the airport into a hub after gaining 132 slot pairs at the facility from US Airways. Delta is scheduled to complete the new market phase-in during Jul-2012 when it launches 26 additional markets from LaGuardia.

Continued erosion in Brazil’s domestic demand triggers stringent capacity discipline for Gol and TAM

Brazil’s two largest carriers Gol and TAM have further refined their already-reduced capacity guidance for 2012 as traffic growth in the country’s domestic sector continues at a much slower pace than during the last couple of years. The continued discipline is part of a broader effort that began in mid-2011 by the carriers to improve their yield performance. But the rebuilding process is progressing more slowly than each carrier would have liked as TAM has concluded customers in the Brazilian domestic market place are becoming more price adverse as the country’s economy is slowing from historically high growth levels during the last several years. Brazilian carriers are also facing added pressure from government-imposed increases in navigation and landing fees.

During 1Q2012 demand (RPKs) in the Brazilian domestic market grew just 7.3% on capacity growth of 11.3%. The growth in 1Q2012 is much slower than the 15.3% growth recorded year-over-year in 1Q2011 and the 33% growth during 1Q2010.

LCCs help drive Mexican international passenger growth of 42% in 1Q2012

Rapid growth among Mexico’s three low-cost carriers – Interjet, VivaAerobus and Volaris – helped drive international passengers transported by Mexican carriers up 42% year-over-year during 1Q2012 as those airlines further expanded into US transborder markets and introduced new flights from Mexico to Central America and the Caribbean.

Mexico’s airlines transported 1.3 million international passengers during the first three months of this year compared with 924,916 during the prior year period, according to data from Mexico's DGAC. Interjet had the most dramatic growth, increasing its share of Mexico's international market (among Mexican carriers) from zero to 5.8% year-over-year. Interjet launched its first international flights last year and now operates from Mexico City to Guatemala, Havana, Miami and San Antonio and from Toluca to San Antonio.

Interjet currently operates 12 weekly roundtrip flights with Airbus A320s from its main base at Mexico City to San Antonio and three weekly flights from Toluca, where the carrier has its headquarters, maintenance facility and a smaller base.

Carriers could benefit from US Government’s pledge to increase visa throughput for Brazil and China

Small steps by the US to increase visa processing capacity for Brazil and China are the result of a campaign by the country’s travel and tourism advisory board to enrich understanding about the economic repercussions of failing to bolster efforts to increase the annual number of visitors from those countries. If those initial moves to strengthen visa processing capacity are successful, more initiatives could follow to capitalise on the economic benefits in opening travel to more visitors from Brazil and China to the US. Airlines already entrenched in those markets stand to increase traffic from those countries if travel restrictions are further loosened.

Rapidly expanding Kenya Airways charts growth with plan to serve every inhabited continent by 2017

Kenya Airways plans to launch its first services to North America, South America and Australia by 2017, making it one of the few carriers to serve every inhabited continent. While these three continents will give Africa's currently fifth-largest airline by seats a global presence, its future is pegged on Asia, with the carrier over the next 10 years planning to launch seven new routes into China, six in the Indian Subcontinent and three across North and Southeast Asia as well as having a growing presence in Europe and the Middle East. It is poised to become Africa's largest carrier.

Growth will be fuelled by Africa's status as a burgeoning market, as well as reliance on partners: Kenya Airways will open routes to SkyTeam member hubs in Xiamen (Xiamen Airlines), Hanoi (Vietnam Airlines), Seoul (Korean Air), Moscow (Aeroflot) and Prague (Czech Airlines). The intercontinental focus follows Kenya's strong emphasis on regional Africa, with the carrier aiming to serve every African nation by the end of 2013. 

JetBlue continues to see benefits and growth opportunities from its hybrid business model

Since its inception more than 12 years ago, JetBlue has undergone a fundamental shift in its business model to become one of the few carriers to achieve true hybrid status: low fares with frills. It has firmly entrenched itself in luring business travellers through a small corporate sales force and built up its network in Boston to largely cater to the more lucrative corporate traveller. This shift in strategy was primarily undertaken to even out the dramatic peaks and troughs JetBlue experienced with its leisure-focused model, and was also accompanied by a push into Latin American and the Caribbean to introduce markets with a strong base of visiting friends and relatives traffic (VFR) that JetBlue concludes is somewhat recession proof. At the same time, it has aggressively added interline partners that help to boost its passenger numbers and smooth out the revenue troughs it can experience during slow travel periods.

But that strategy is not without critics. JetBlue’s growth rates during the last few years have raised eyebrows when most carriers have constantly refined their capacity growth to near zero or have actually shrank their supply.

Houston airport operator envisions Hobby offering international flights in 12 markets

Studies carried out on behalf of the Houston Airport System (HAS) to examine the viability of international flights from Houston Hobby airport contemplate a two-phased introduction of 12 markets to Mexico and Central America. Southwest Airlines is pushing for facilities at Hobby to support international flights, but research conducted shows that Mexican low cost carriers VivaAerobus and Volaris would also have an interest to operate international service from Hobby. It is not surprising United has mounted vehement opposition to Southwest’s campaign, as it enjoys majority carrier status in most of those markets with its service offerings from Houston Intercontinental Airport.

Earlier this year Southwest asked Houston Airport System (HAS) to conduct a feasibility study for the addition of a five-gate terminal at Houston Hobby Airport to support international flights. Houston is Southwest’s sixth largest city based on daily departures, and the city’s geographical location makes it an ideal destination for short-haul international flights to Mexico and Central and South America. Data in the study conducted on behalf of HAS show that Houston was the point of entry for 64% of Mexican visitors travelling by air to the US in 2010. Through its acquisition of AirTran, previously domestic-only Southwest is gaining knowledge of international operations now that it is managing AirTran’s network, which includes flights to the Caribbean and Central America.