The party's over: Ryanair's ancillaries are stuttering, to raise fares, slow growth

Ryanair has raised its FY2010 earnings forecast to EUR275 million, as a smaller than expected yield fall (a 12% reduction, rather than the up to 20% reduction previously guided) helped narrow the carrier’s third quarter loss to EUR11 million (compared with EUR119 million in the previous corresponding period). Ryanair CEO, Michael O’Leary, commented that the loss in the quarter was “disappointing, although better than expected”. [3118 words]

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This report contains the following subheadings:

• Revenues up only marginal; pax increase by 14%; fares down 12%
• Average fares and revenue per pax down by double digits; ancillaries level out
• Ryanair to raise fares
• Relentless cost discipline bears results
• Traffic and profits expected to double by FY2013, if...
• Moving network away from “high tax, high cost countries”; Concentrating on the development of Continental Europe 
• End of an era - change of strategy as Ryanair terminates Boeing discussions
• Outlook: Higher fares, lower growth and no O'Leary

This report contains the following charts and tables:

• Ryanair financial highlights for three months ended Dec-2009
• Ryanair profit after tax: FY2006 to FY2010E
• Ryanair operating profit margin 1Q2005 to 3Q2010
• Revenue per passenger: FY2006 to 3Q2010
• Ryanair ancillary revenue as a portion of total revenue: 1Q2005 to 3Q2010
• Ryanair financial highlights for three months ended 31-Dec-2009
• Ryanair fuel expenses as a portion of total operating expenses: 1Q2005 to 3Q2010
• Ryanair fuel hedges for FY2009: as at Dec-2009
• Ryanair fuel hedges for FY2010: as at Dec-2009
• Ryanair passenger numbers and passenger growth: FY2007 to FY2013F
• Ryanair passenger number and passenger load factor: FY2006 to 1Q-3Q2010
• Allocation of new aircraft over Summer 2010
• Ryanair fleet plans: FY2007 to FY2013
• Ryanair destination map: Feb-2010
• Ryanair gross capex: FY2010 to FY2014
• Southwest, Ryanair and easyJet fleet growth: 1971 to 2012F and 2013-2015 scenarios