Downward pressure on world jet fuel prices, global tourism outlook slashed
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Jet fuel prices have risen around 20% since the start of 2009, while the underlying crude price has soared 51%. The reason jet fuel prices have lagged the underlying crude price rise is that the market does appear to be reacting to the fundamentals for once: demand for jet fuel remains very weak.
Latest data from Airports Council International shows passenger and freight demand remains very soft, while the June edition of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer shows international tourism declined by 8% between January and April compared to the same period last year.
Another downwards revision to global tourism forecast
The UNWTO has revised its forecast for the full year 2009, with international tourism now forecast to decrease by between -6% and -4% in 2009, though the pace of decline is “expected to ease during the remainder of 2009”.
In March, the UNWTO was expecting international tourism to stagnate (0%) or even decline slightly (-1% to -2%) throughout 2009, but this was revised to a decline of between 2% and 3% in May.
Jet fuel prices mixed in week rounding off June
Jet fuel prices were mixed in the past week (to 30-Jun-09), as the underlying crude price rose by 1.5%. But crude prices dropped heavily overnight on a weak jobs report from the US, falling almost 4% to below USD67 per barrel.
Jet fuel spot prices rose 0.3% in the week to 30-Jun-09 at New York Harbor, -0.8 at the US Gulf Coast, -3.2% at Los Angeles, but rose 0.6% in Amsterdam and 5.0% in Singapore.
Over the past year, crude oil prices have halved, while jet fuel prices are down by 55%, providing significant relief to airlines
Daily jet fuel prices (kerosene, cents per gallon) at New York, US Gulf Coast, Los Angeles, Amsterdam, Singapore vs Crude Spot price (WTI, USD per barrel): 23-Jun-09 to 30-Jun-09
|
23-Jun-09 |
24-Jun-09 |
25-Jun-09 |
26-Jun-09 |
29-Jun-09 |
30-Jun-09 |
one week |
12 month |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
New York Harbor |
182.4 |
179.5 |
185.14 |
180.7 |
185.2 |
183 |
0.3% |
-54.9% |
|
U.S. Gulf Coast |
180.15 |
180.3 |
183 |
179.1 |
182.85 |
178.75 |
-0.8% |
-55.5% |
|
Los Angeles |
182.9 |
181.25 |
185.39 |
181.7 |
185.45 |
176.97 |
-3.2% |
-55.4% |
|
Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp |
183.48 |
182.95 |
187.48 |
183.63 |
188.32 |
184.54 |
0.6% |
-55.1% |
|
Singapore |
177.74 |
182.86 |
182.02 |
185.48 |
180 |
186.67 |
5.0% |
-54.2% |
|
WTI Spot |
68.81 |
68.14 |
69.7 |
69.16 |
71.47 |
69.82 |
1.5% |
-50.1% |
Daily jet fuel prices (kerosene, cents per gallon) at New York, US Gulf Coast, Los Angeles, Amsterdam, Singapore: 02-Dec-08 to 30-Jun-09
