Lagos Murtala Muhammed Airport

A diverging West Africa: Ghana finds over-capacity while Nigeria struggles with too little

Only 402km apart, Accra and Lagos could not have more different aviation markets. Accra has found itself with excess capacity, and consequently Brussels Airlines and United Airlines are withdrawing their respective services from Brussels and Washington DC while Delta Air Lines will reduce overall capacity. Meanwhile in Nigeria, the country's lack of capacity has become a national discussion after the Government threatened to suspend British Airways (BA) and Virgin Atlantic for having expensive fares. But the focus has shifted to the Government and its unwillingness to liberalise air service agreements, which are operating at the maximum for UK carriers, as well as its lack of support for a homegrown aviation industry.

This month Air Nigeria will commence Lagos-London services, adding to the market and further utilising Nigerian capacity to the UK, raising the chances of Nigeria being willing to expand its air service agreement with the UK, which has seen little change since 1999. There are 14,000 weekly seats from Ghana to Europe and 33,000 from Nigeria to Europe, despite Nigeria having a population and GDP five to six times larger. The potential in Nigeria is waiting to be unlocked by a government that in the Corruption Perceptions Index ranks 143rd out of 182nd most corrupt nations.

Air Nigeria to resume long-haul network as West African aviation grows

Air Nigeria is resuming its long-haul network after services were cut during a period of restructuring, ownership transfer and re-branding three years ago. The privately held flag carrier, formerly known as Virgin Nigeria and briefly as Nigeria Eagle Airlines, will resume long-haul services in May-2012 to London Gatwick and Johannesburg with plans in the short-term to launch Rome and Paris services.

The Lagos-based carrier has had a false start, expecting last year to resume long-haul flights in Sep-2011, but plans this time are more concrete, with Air Nigeria loading schedules and fares. Its planned services will see notable competition, but like many routes in and out of Africa, are typically high-yielding. Air Nigeria’s forthcoming Lagos-London route is the latest in West Africa-Europe expansion, following notable capacity increases from Brussels Airlines.

United continues international network shifts and drops service to Accra in Ghana

United is moving international capacity around its largest hubs in what appears to be an effort to maximise its network now that a crucial passenger service system cutover is complete. The IT system cutover allows United and Continental, whose merger is now complete, to fully utilise the combined networks and properly cross-fleet to operate optimal-sized aircraft in United’s markets. One of the more prominent changes is the elimination of flights from United’s Washington Dulles hub to Accra, which was the carrier’s first point in Africa when the route was launched in 2010. Other changes include the seasonal elimination of flights from Washington to Moscow and from Newark to Rome.

The changes will support an overall revised capacity forecast for United this year. The carrier has refined its 2012 capacity guidance from an overall decrease of 0.5% to 1.5%, compared with a previous estimate of between growth of 0.5% and a drop of 0.5%. United’s international capacity is now projected to grow this year by 0.3% to 1.3%, but some of that will be driven by new long-haul flights from Washington Dulles to Doha beginning in May, followed by Dulles to Manchester and Dublin.

Nigeria and Ghana driving West African aviation development

West Africa’s aviation industry is being led forward by Nigeria and Ghana. In Nigeria, the largest carrier, Arik Air, recently revealed itself as Boeing’s un-named B747-8 customer, while national carrier Air Nigeria is in the process of re-establishing its long-haul network. While the airlines are not without their problems, the market is growing and new entrants are appearing. In Ghana, the country is opening up to international carriers who are eager to increase their frequencies to the gold-producing country. Ghana itself is the site of one of Africa’s newest carrier, Starbow Airlines, and an impending base for pan-African LCC, Fly540.

Airbus predicted cities in these two countries, Accra and Lagos, will become “airline megacities” in the next 20 years, meaning they will handle 10,000 or more long-haul passengers a day. Accra and Lagos are two of just six** African cities tipped to become an “airline megacity”.

Arik Air orders two 747-8s to continue expansion as Nigeria's largest carrier

Arik Air on 06-Oct-2011 was identified as the carrier who anonymously purchased two Boeing 747-8 aircraft on 15-Jun-2011. The purchase injects life into the aircraft programme, which only has two other disclosed airline customers although Boeing has continuously said it expects the freighter variant to be far more successful than the passenger version. More important is the aircraft's affect on Nigerian aviation and cementing the position of Arik Air as the regional leader.

Arik Air says it intends to operate the B747-8s on its "key long-haul routes". Arik Air only currently operates to London Heathrow, New York JFK and Johannesburg. The carrier announced this week its intention to launch thrice weekly service to Abu Dhabi on 29-Nov-2011 with A340-500s. With London Heathrow being Nigeria's largest long-haul market, slot-constrained and facing more competition, the airport has very good chances of receiving Arik Air's B747-8 service.

Air Nigeria re-establishes long-haul routes

Air Nigeria is resuming long-haul operations after a nearly three-year hiatus, with A340-300 flights to London Gatwick commencing in Sep-2011. The carrier is also aiming to use its newly acquired A340-300 fleet to resume flights to Johannesburg and launch Washington Dulles with the latter designed to supplement its new codeshare service via Delta Air Lines to Atlanta and New York.