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Featured Analysis

CAPA India announces launch of CAPA Aircraft Advisory Service

01-Jul-09: Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation announced today the launch of CAPA Aircraft Advisory, India’s first professional end-to-end aircraft acquisition service. This unique solution is designed to de-mystify the process of selecting and acquiring, an aircraft for private or general use, be it a business jet, a turboprop or a helicopter.

China aviation SWOT: Airlines cash starved, China Eastern-Shanghai Air merger likely to stumble

19-Jun-09: China’s airline industry faces an enormously challenging year. Geared for growth, under-capitalised and unrestructured, the sector has been rocked by external events and economic malaise, while internal rivalries and policy inertia threaten to undermine what on paper appears a potential aviation growth bonanza. We review China’s aviation sector prospects in this SWOT analysis.

Ryanair SWOT Analysis: Addicted to growth, a great model for bad times

03-Jun-09: Micheal O'Leary's years of shimmying and pulsating have finally worked. His rain dance has brought a flood of almost biblical proportions. Economic misery across Europe has most of its airlines in a fight for near term survival. Not Ryanair. It is one of the only airlines poised to make money this year. But some significant medium term battles are looming. Economic recovery is probably Ryanair's greatest problem and the key reason behind O'Leary's threat to buy Lufthansa. In this report, we review Ryanair's enduring strengths - its low fares super brand and relentless focus on low costs; its progress in identifying weaknesses in its model and turning them into strengths; how it is leveraging its size to develop market opportunities; and its effective strategy of neutralising threats.

Economic crisis hits airport privatisation, but some momentum regained recently - New CAPA report

29-May-09: In the last six months or so, as the economic downturn has really begun to bite, the prospects for airport privatisation have reduced accordingly. The Chicago Midway deal fell through, the Prague offer has been postponed, and the Gatwick sale descended into near farce as only one consortium was left with a bid still on the table. But the business is resilient as it proved after September 2001 when the IPO on Airports of Thailand, the sale of Sydney Airport and the PPP on the two main (Greek) Cyprus airports were all delayed – they all went through eventually. Despite the credit crunch new investors have continued to emerge and there are still a substantial number of smaller deals at the regional level, especially in emerging countries.

Traffic

Jetstar vs. Virgin Blue May-2009 traffic This article is premium content

02-Jul-09: Both Jetstar and Virgin Blue reported increases in passenger traffic in May-2009, led by increases in international traffic, as both carriers continue to expand their international operations.

Fleets

Jetstar continues short-haul expansion as B787s pushed back This article is premium content

02-Jul-09: Qantas Group announced on 26-Jun-09 it had reached a mutual agreement with Boeing to defer the delivery of 15 B787-8 aircraft by four years and cancel orders for 15 B787-9 aircraft, previously scheduled for delivery in 2014/2015.

Finance

Worrying omens for Central and Eastern Europe as Meinl Airports is liquidated and SkyEurope battle

02-Jul-09: During the last five years Central and Eastern Europe has been regarded as a hotspot both for budget airline growth and for airport investment. But the demise of Meinl Airports in Apr-09 and the continuing difficulties being experienced by the LCC SkyEurope have begun to cast doubt on the previously assumed potential of the region.

Regulation

Dire Straits. Taiwan-Mainland ties warm amid economic deep freeze This article is premium content

20-Feb-09: The Taiwanese economy is in serious strife, which could trigger further engagement with the Mainland. The island’s fourth quarter GDP plunged an unprecedented 8.4% and further slides are possible this year as the island’s manufacturing-based economy suffers amid the global economic slump. Direct aviation links, enhanced in Dec-08 with the commencement of weekday cross-Strait services, are expected to strengthen as the economic storm rages.

ATM

Controller shortages still plaguing Indian ATC This article is premium content

16-Jun-09: Despite slowing traffic in 2008 and into 2009, India’s aviation infrastructure, particularly its Air Traffic Control systems, remains under pressure, both to deal with the level of traffic in India and to comply with international standards.

Alliances/Consolidation

June Wrap: Aviation's winners and losers

01-Jul-09: June was the month when economic green shoots failed to bloom, swine flu didn’t stop spreading, IATA doubled its net loss forecast, the World Bank almost doubled the size of the expected fall in global GDP this year, the B787 failed to fly, the Paris air show was a non-event apart from a few notable engine orders by Middle East airlines, and there were two major air crashes, involving an Air France A330 and a Yemenia Airways A310.

Downward pressure on world jet fuel prices, global tourism outlook slashed

3-Jul-09 2:10 PM

Jet fuel prices have risen around 20% since the start of 2009, while the underlying crude price has soared 51%. The reason jet fuel prices have lagged the underlying crude price rise is that the market does appear to be reacting to the fundamentals for once: demand for jet fuel remains very weak.

Do recent British government about-turns suggest that the sale of BAA’s airports may be postponed?

3-Jul-09 2:10 PM
Premium

The British (Labour) government has gone into 'survival mode' as much as have the world’s airlines during the first week of Jul-2009 as it tries to placate as many people as possible, and the trade unions, by scrapping unpopular projects. Lagging well behind in the polls, written-off in the media and with a general election required to be held on or before May-10 it is taking desperate measures to get itself re-elected, even so far as to refuse to say what its spending plans are for 2010.

Worldwide airport traffic remains stubbornly low in May-2009

3-Jul-09 12:55 PM

Latest data from Airports Council International (ACI) shows worldwide passenger demand softened again in May-2009, falling 8% year-on-year as swine flu took a toll and economic woes continued. International passenger traffic tumbled by 9%, while domestic traffic declined by 7%, according to ACI.

Jet America: If at first you don’t succeed…(Part 2)

3-Jul-09 12:50 PM

FRIDAY REFLECTIONS, WITH RON KUHLMANN & THE CENTRE. The first part of this article documented the meteoric rise and fall of Skybus, based on Ryanair’s model: although much less successfully implemented. Yet even as that carrier wobbled on its axis, the founder, John Weikle, was raising funds to replicate the model in Charleston, West Virginia, this one to be called Jet America. And that’s where we pick up our story.

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FedEx, UPS and US LCCs hit hard by weak US jobs report – Stock Wrap

3-Jul-09 12:50 PM

US airline stocks were dragged down by the US Labor Department report showing the US economy shed a further 467,000 jobs in Jun-2009 – 100,000 more than market expectations – and pushing the US unemployment rate to a 26-year high of 9.5%. But oil prices tumbled by close to 4%, which muted the overall hit on airline stocks.

Air France-KLM, British Airways and Lufthansa drop as European market gloom descends

3-Jul-09 12:45 PM

European stock markets were savaged yesterday as further weakness on the US jobs front raise questions about the so-called ‘economic green-shoots’. The major European carriers suffered, led by Air France-KLM (-5.3%), British Airways (-4%) and Lufthansa (-2.8%).

Airport shares worldwide slide as traffic remains low in May-2009

3-Jul-09 12:40 PM

Airport shares worldwide slid yesterday as Wall Street slumped on a weak jobs report and the Airports Council International (ACI) released weak traffic figures for May-2009. The operators of Rome Airport (Gemina) and Vienna Airport led the declines, down 4.4% and 4.0%, respectively.

US LCCs slip, as does Ryanair, easyJet and Air Berlin, AirAsia up slightly

3-Jul-09 12:40 PM

Shares in the major US LCCs were down yesterday (02-Jul-09), led by AirTran (-4.9%). The Orlando-based carrier yesterday reported a 5.4% year-on-year reduction in passenger numbers to 2.2 million, with load factor slipping 1.1. ppts to 83.6%. The carrier’s 2Q2009 load factor of 80.7%, a 1.3 ppt year-on-year improvement, represented a new second quarter record for the carrier, as it reduced capacity (ASMs) by 7.6% in the quarter.

China Southern slips, Cathay Pacific, Qantas and Singapore Airlines also down

3-Jul-09 12:00 PM

Shares in All Nippon Airways remained stable on Thursday (02-Jul-09), after falling the most in more than six years on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Wednesday (01-Jul-09).

787 nosedive continues for Boeing – Share Wrap

3-Jul-09 11:31 AM

Boeing continues to take a beating on the delays to its B787 programme, with the company’s share price losing 3.5% yesterday, after analysts at Jefferies & Co cut their forecast for initial deliveries of the aircraft by three months and the outlook for 2010 production from 24 to 18 aircraft. After delaying the initial test flight in late Jun-2009, due to the need for small structural reinforcements on wing/fuselage connection points, the US manufacturer has seen its share price dip more than 15%. A revised test flight and a new delivery schedule for the aircraft is due to be announced in the next few weeks.

All Nippon Airways SWOT: ANA poised for big things

2-Jul-09 5:45 PM

All Nippon Airways (ANA) stands on the cusp of a new era of growth and prosperity – a rare outlook for a Japanese company amid the country’s deepest recession since the 1970s, as we review in this SWOT Analysis.

Continental Airlines’ June yields remain very depressed, though load factors and cash levels improve

2-Jul-09 5:30 PM

Continental Airlines’ 2Q2009 financial results are unlikely to make for pleasant reading. For Jun-2009, consolidated and mainline passenger revenue per available seat mile (RASM) are both estimated to have decreased between 19.5 and 20.5% year-on-year. For May-2009, consolidated passenger RASM decreased 19.9% compared to May-2008, while mainline passenger RASM decreased 19.1% year-on-year.

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