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Featured Analysis

2010 could be a big year for Chinese airlines as traffic booms. Will they look to invest abroad? This article is premium content

27-Jan-10: China’s economy is booming again and oil prices are around half their peak 2008 levels. For Chinese airlines, it’s a pretty simple equation, with pent-up demand expected to provide very strong traffic growth again in 2010 after surprisingly strong growth last year (particularly in the second half). As a result, airline industry profits should flow again in 2010 after a recovery in earnings in 2H2009. Chinese aviation is bullish again, growing capacity aggressively (taking delivery of almost one in two aircraft bound for Asia Pacific airlines in 2009 – a proportion it will repeat in 2010 and 2011) and – crucially – looking to further consolidate at home. And will expansion mean foreign airline acquisitions, just as China’s wealth funds are buying into foreign resources?

Dubai tops growth rates for world’s largest airports in 2009

26-Jan-10: Major airport hubs in Asia and the Middle East suffered less over 2009 than their counterparts in Europe and North America, but the year was anything but an easy. Of the world’s 50 busiest airports, just four reported growth in passenger traffic in 2009, according to CAPA.

Ancillary revenues: Airlines to earn USD58 billion in 2010; CAPA to review Asia Pacific prospects

22-Jan-10: The LCC sector has triggered an ancillary revenue (merchandising) revolution, with airlines worldwide expected to generate USD58 billion in ancillaries this year. Baggage fees are one of the fast growing items in a portfolio developed largely by LCCs that also includes seat allocation, inflight services and products, related travel products (including insurance, car hire and accommodation), inflight advertising, airport lounges access and increasingly diverse opportunities including concert tickets, mobile phone credits and more.

Share Market Performance

Airport shares mixed on Monday. Traffic performance reflects regional differences

09-Feb-10: Shares in China’s Shenzhen Airport were up 0.6% yesterday. Passenger traffic at the airport rose 5.1% year-on-year in Jan-2010 to 2.2 million, while aircraft movements increased by 6.1% year-on-year in Jan-2010 to 18,200.

Asiana Airlines’ parent avoids court receivership; China Eastern seeking strategic investor

09-Feb-10: Asiana Airlines’ shares slumped 5.7% yesterday, on fresh concerns regarding the outlook for its parent, Kumho Asiana Group, after the Group’s owners rejected a demand by creditors that they offer their stockholdings and assets as collateral for fresh loans by a 07-Feb-2010 deadline.

Kenya Airways up with improved traffic; Royal Jordanian’s exclusive right to Jordan cancelled

08-Feb-10: Middle East and Africa airlines’ shares were mixed again on Friday (05-Feb-2010). Royal Jordanian (+1.1%) continued to make gains on Friday despite Jordan's Civil Aviation Authority cancelling the carrier’s exclusive right to operate scheduled flights to/from Jordan during trading.

Hawaiian Airlines reports stronger financial & traffic results; American Airlines back in with JAL?

08-Feb-10: The majority of North and South American carriers made gains despite a very modest rise in the wider US market on Friday (05-Feb-2010), with the Dow ending trading up 0.1%, following mixed US jobs data. It was announced during trading that the US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9.7% for Dec-2009. However, job losses for the month also increased.

British Airways reports surprise profit, Vueling suffers over concerns for Spain’s debt

08-Feb-10: European markets were down for a second day on Friday (05-Feb-2010), dragging down airline shares, as investors continued to express concern over debt in Eurozone countries. Early in trading, investors were also concerned ahead of US unemployment data, released later in trading. However, the data showed an unexpected drop in unemployment, to 9.7% in Dec-2009. Oil prices slid 2.7% to USD71.19 per barrel in New York.

Improved RASK for Air Berlin; “gradual” yield improvements for GOL; Norwegian’s yields slump in Jan

08-Feb-10: Norwegian Air Shuttle reported a 21% reduction in both yield and revenue per ASK in Jan-2010 (to NOK0.48/EUR5.87 and NOK0.34/EUR4.15), for the largest year-on-year yield reduction in over 21 months.

GIP selling off Gatwick by the pound – is that what the airlines expected?

9-Feb-10 12:44 PM

During negotiations for the enforced sale of London’s Gatwick Airport during 2009, the resident airlines there, and especially those with extensive operations like easyJet, let it be known that what they really wanted next was a ‘real’ airport operator that had the interests of airlines and passengers at its heart. While GIP’s experience at London City Airport – albeit only with short-haul airlines apart from BA’s New York flight – would have been comforting to those airlines, its surprisingly quick decision to offer equity to a pension fund and a sovereign wealth fund may be cause for some concern to the airlines.

Qantas leveraged to premium travel improvements, discount fares under pressure

9-Feb-10 12:16 PM

Australian domestic Business Class fares reached their highest levels in 11 months in Feb-2010, according to the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport & Regional Economics fare survey. The index of real Business Class fares (July 2003 = 100) rose to 104.0 in Feb-2010 to the highest level since Mar-2009 (104.7), reflecting increasing in economic activity and recovering corporate travel.

Airlines see improved yields ahead, but risks remain – IATA survey

9-Feb-10 12:02 PM

Airlines are becoming more optimistic about the outlook for yields, with a recent IATA survey of airline executives noting over three-quarters of respondents indicated that yields should increase over the coming year. IATA stated that further demand recovery, combined with capacity restraint, could “lend support to this pattern of improvement over the year ahead”, but added, “the risk remains of excess capacity re-entering the market once more and muting yield recovery”.

Bombardier to cut commercial aircraft output by 20% this year - Suppliers Share Wrap

8-Feb-10 4:36 PM

Canadian aircraft manufacturer Bombardier saw 2009 aircraft deliveries down by more than 10% for the year to 31-Jan-2010, and expects deliveries to be cut by double-digit levels in the current fiscal year for both business and commercial aircraft.

Abu Dhabi buys Gatwick stake, Dubai World unit sells SpiceJet stake

8-Feb-10 2:41 PM

Dubai may have found another oil field recently, but it is the neighbouring emirate of Abu Dhabi that has all the cash. Abu Dhabi provided USD10 billion in emergency funding late last year to Dubai (although recent reports suggest the figure was about half that) to help Dubai narrowly avoid a default on its massive debts. In the past few days, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has moved to acquire a stake in London Gatwick Airport, while Dubai World's investment arm, Istithmar, sold its entire holding in Indian budget airline, SpiceJet, as part of its restructure.

British Airways’ surprise profit, Finnair’s unsurprising loss. A contrast in styles

8-Feb-10 2:12 PM

Oneworld partners, British Airways and Finnair are each beset by significant challenges, not least labour unrest and a need to cut costs. Despite this, BA managed to restore some respectability to its bottom line in the Dec-2009 quarter. The carrier unveiled an operating profit of GBP25 million (EUR28.6 million) in the three months ended 31-Dec-2009 (against a loss of GBP51 million in the same period last year), while Finnair reported an operating loss of EUR39.4 million (a significant widening from a EUR13.7 million loss in the Dec-2008 quarter). BA’s greater ability to draw on its partnerships arrangements may give it the vital edge, as economic conditions remain testing.

US airline outlook: Fundamental restructuring is in the wind but will the industry revert to type?

5-Feb-10 5:15 PM

A simple question on the lessons learned from the downturn, posed during last week’s Continental analyst call, resulted in the clearest indication yet of the structural changes now under way at US carriers. They go far beyond capacity, revealing the task ahead for legacy airlines. It also reveals the implications for manufacturers, regionals and organised labor, as low cost airlines also restrain expansion.

Philippines Outlook: Philippine Airlines in trouble again; Cebu Pacific growing. Low cost long-haul?

5-Feb-10 5:11 PM
Premium

Philippines is one the fastest growing air travel markets in the world, joining the likes of India, Mexico and Brazil in experiencing rapid passenger growth, driven by strong domestic air travel growth rates, as LCCs, especially locally based Cebu Pacific, provide a boost for the industry, entering domestic markets previously not served with affordable air services.

The party's over: Ryanair's ancillaries are stuttering, to raise fares, slow growth

5-Feb-10 4:46 PM
Premium

Ryanair has raised its FY2010 earnings forecast to EUR275 million, as a smaller than expected yield fall (a 12% reduction, rather than the up to 20% reduction previously guided) helped narrow the carrier’s third quarter loss to EUR11 million (compared with EUR119 million in the previous corresponding period). Ryanair CEO, Michael O’Leary, commented that the loss in the quarter was “disappointing, although better than expected”.

Pinnacle poised for coming industry contract shifts

5-Feb-10 12:36 PM

Standing pat with solid contracts that do not change for another seven years, Pinnacle, which a market capitalization of about USD144 million as of 01-Feb-2010, is casting about for more opportunities in picking up business, as contracts between other regionals and their major contracts begin to expire. Chair and CEO Phil Trenary noted all the contracts expiring between now and 2017. That, coupled with its low-cost fleet, offer up opportunities to win the competition for new business, he said.

Oil prices smashed on economic worries, stronger US dollar. Dubai finds new oil field

5-Feb-10 11:02 AM
Premium

Oil prices slumped 5% on Thursday, dropping USD3.84 per barrel in New York (the biggest one-day fall since Jul-2009), to settle at USD73.14. Growing concerns about debt-laden European economies and rising US unemployment claims have sparked a commodities sell-off this week, while a stronger US dollar has exacerbated oil's falls.

Issues NTSB can do little about remain in play

5-Feb-10 10:47 AM

That the Colgan 3407 accident was caused by pilot error comes as no surprise, given the string of failures identified at this week's National Transportation Safety Board meeting. Indeed, so much of the board meeting seemed to be marked by failure which hung like a cloud over the proceedings. While the crew and the airline may have failed, it was not that shadowing the board’s report. It was inactivity on the biggest issues raised by the accident – codesharing, professionalism, commuting and training.

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