China LEI increases
13-Sep-2010 The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.5 percent in July to 147.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in June and a 0.9 percent increase in May. Two of the six components contributed positively to the index in July.
"July's increase in the China LEI signals a continuation of moderate economic growth through year-end," said Bill Adams, resident economist for The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. "However, strengths among the LEI's components have become less widespread in recent months. Growth may become less evenly shared among manufacturing, investment, and consumer sectors."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, also increased 0.5 percent in July to 187.3 (2004 = 100), following a 1.0 percent increase in June and a 0.9 percent increase in May. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in July.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.
The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2010 indicator releases: http://www.conference-board.org/data/
* The series in The Conference Board LEI for China that is based on our estimates is the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index. The series in The Conference Board CEI for China that is based on our estimates is manufacturing employment.