Aeromexico

Mexican LCCs Interjet, Volaris and VivaAerobus plan more rapid growth for 2012

Mexico’s three low-cost carriers are planning another year of rapid growth as they continue to benefit from the 2010 collapse of Grupo Mexicana. Interjet, Volaris and VivaAerobus saw their combined domestic passenger traffic grow by 41% in 2011 to 13.8 million passengers. Their international operations expanded even faster last year albeit on a very small base, recording 91% growth to 1.2 million passengers. More rapid growth is expected across both the domestic and international networks as the Mexico’s LCC trio plans to take delivery of 17 additional aircraft in 2012, representing 20% growth and resulting in a combined LCC fleet of 101 aircraft.

The LCC penetration rate in Mexico’s dynamic domestic market reached 54% in 2011, compared to 50% in 2010. The total domestic market grew by 4% in 2011 to 25.455 million passengers, which is still 8% below the peak of 2008 when Mexican carriers transported 27.649 million domestic passengers. But the fact Mexico has been able to grow at all the last two years (in 2010 growth was under 1%) is quite an achievement given the sudden collapse in Aug-2010 of Mexicana, which had about a 28% share of the domestic market.

Delta’s investment in Gol has SkyTeam and broader US-LatAm strategic implications

SkyTeam’s goal of recruiting Gol as a new member took one gigantic step forward this week with Delta Air Line’s acquisition of a minority stake in the Brazilian carrier. The deal also further separates Delta from its US peers as the airline continues to aggressively pursue a strategy of investing in carriers from Latin America and potentially other overseas markets. Other US major carriers have not yet duplicated this strategy but should be enticed to follow Delta’s lead given the opportunities which exist outside the mature US market.

Delta’s eagerness to invest outside North America first surfaced in late 2009, when it made an ultimately unsuccessful bid to acquire a stake in Japan Airlines while the oneworld carrier was restructuring under bankruptcy protection. Nearly two years later, in Aug-2011, Delta made a lower profile but equally significant move in agreeing to acquire a minority stake in fellow SkyTeam member Aeromexico. The USD65 million deal with Aeromexico will give Delta about a 4% share in its Mexican partner as well as a seat on Aeromexico’s board.

US carriers continue to dominate Latin America's international market

Although financially weaker than their competitors to the south, US carriers continue to dominate Latin America’s international market. As a result, US airlines are well positioned to exploit the anticipated growth in the region. Complacency, however, is not an option. US carriers should seriously consider making strategic investments in Latin America’s leading airline groups to ensure their place in this important emerging market.

Latin America is a natural playground for US carriers given the geographic proximity and economic ties between the two regions. US carriers have traditionally accounted for a large majority of capacity between the US and Latin America. This has always been a sore topic for Latin American airlines, who over the years have repeatedly complained about an uneven playing field and how difficult it is to compete against their larger and aggressive competitors to the north.

UPDATE: oneworld favoured with more at stake than Star in LAN-TAM alliance decision

(this article, which was initially published on 24-Sep-2011, has been updated to include initial LAN response, further discussion of TDLC measures and implications for Gol and SkyTeam)

The stage is set for the biggest global alliance selection of the decade as new airline group LATAM is being forced by Chile's anti-trust court to choose a single grouping. The decision by LATAM, the new parent company for oneworld’s LAN and Star’s TAM, will have huge ramifications as the winning alliance will be guaranteed a leading position in the fast-growing and increasingly important Latin American market. The more likely outcome is a oneworld victory, which would result in its share of capacity in the region increasing to 30% compared to approximately 15% for Star and 11% for SkyTeam.

A year after Mexicana's exit, Aeromexico, Mexican LCCs and US carriers are main beneficiaries

One year after the suspension of services at Grupo Mexicana, which became the largest airline casualty since the onset of the global financial crisis, it appears the Mexican market has fully recovered. Mexico’s remaining carriers have been able to quickly absorb Mexicana’s approximately 27% of the domestic market. US carriers have so far been the largest beneficiaries of Mexicana’s demise in the international market but Mexico’s remaining carriers are eager to start narrowing the very wide gap with their foreign competitors.

Delta to acquire stake in Aeromexico as part of expanded alliance

SkyTeam founding members Delta Air Lines and Aeromexico have unveiled plans to significantly expand their longstanding alliance with an equity tie-up. The two carriers will also start codesharing on more flights, co-locate airport facilities and expand on their innovative MRO partnership by jointly investing in a new maintenance facility.