A&F Aviation

ANA – and Japan's transport system – appears oblivious to coming LCC impacts, which will be vast

All Nippon Airways (ANA) has reported a very strong financial result for the past year, despite severe headwinds in the wake of the Mar-2011 tsunami and nuclear disaster. This augurs well for the short term as new Boeing 787s arrive and international partnerships are forged with the carrier's Star Alliance partners.

But in its forward vision there appears very little to suggest management fully comprehends the likely impact the three new LCCs (as well as an expanding Skymark) will have on Japan's domestic and regional short/medium-haul markets. And, in Japan's carefully managed transport system, embracing its world class shinkansen high-speed rail and high quality toll roads, pricing instability is about to disrupt travel behaviour in ways seemingly not apparent to Tokyo's planners.

A quick look at what has happened elsewhere in the world, once truly low-cost airline operations arrive, should be enough to make any observer aware of the potential of adding three new LCCs to Japan's slumbering domestic market in the space of six months. But apparently not in Japan. As has been observed many times in this context: once this egg is scrambled, it does not go back in its shell.

Japan LCC era yet to enter full swing, but route cannibalisation starts

Japan's forthcoming boom in low-cost carriers has yet to enter full swing with AirAsia Japan and Jetstar Japan still to launch, but signs are now emerging of an early and direct affect LCCs will have on legacy carriers.

Japan Airlines (JAL) will suspend its Tokyo Narita-Osaka Kansai service in Jul-2012, the same month JAL-Qantas joint-venture Jetstar Japan will commence operations, including with a daily Tokyo Narita-Osaka Kansai service, increasing to double daily in Aug-2012.

AirAsia Japan plans launch with domestic and Korean flights

Japan's aviation scene, which had few significant movements over the past decade, will be turned on its head in just five months, encompassing the time three new low-cost carriers will enter the market, the latest of which is AirAsia Japan. Preliminary schedules show AirAsia Japan and Jetstar Japan, both based at Tokyo Narita, will compete head on from Tokyo to Fukuoka, Okinawa and Sapporo. The market, which has grown accustomed to the presence of two main carriers and a handful of smaller ones with little movement in fares, will be inundated with new and aggressive competition offering typical LCC fare stimulation. Adjustment time will be brief as AirAsia Japan within two months is due to enter short-haul international markets.

Yet despite the compactness of LCC activity, preliminary nuances in strategy are emerging between the carriers. Jetstar is favouring domestic flights, partially replicating its extensive domestic operations in Australia and New Zealand whereas AirAsia has a greater regional emphasis, reflecting its experience in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Peach is more conservative but building both a domestic and international network. 

Jetstar Japan plans more aggressive launch than competitor Peach, reflecting Japanese LCC market

The launch schedule of Jetstar Japan, the LCC to commence services on 03-Jul-2012, is more aggressive than the Mar-2012 launch of competitor Peach, reflecting not only a market that will see tremendous and competitive growth in a very short period of time, but also the greater freedom enjoyed by the country's second wave of LCCs like Jetstar Japan.

While Jetstar in its first week will operate up to six daily return flights, one less than Peach launched with, the carrier will quickly ramp up operations, ending its first two months with 14 daily flights, more than the 11 daily flights Peach will have at the end of its first 3.5 months.

Jetstar Japan's launch will see four more of the world's 20 most populous routes have competition from LCCs, leaving only three routes served exclusively by full-service carriers in a reminder of greatly shifting tides. While LCC presence in China is the next objective, so too is domination: the world's most populous route is already controlled by LCCs. 

ANA first quarter losses widen but full year profit still expected. Some B787s deferred

All Nippon Airways (ANA) stated it still expects to be profitable in FY2011 despite the impact of the 11-Mar-2011 earthquake, although the carrier’s net profit result is expected to decline by 14% year-on-year amid the disruption to travel demand.

AirAsia and ANA join forces to create Tokyo Narita-based LCC

AirAsia and All Nippon Airways (ANA) announced on 21-Jul-2011 plans to form a JV LCC in Japan to be called AirAsia Japan Co. The carriers expect the JV airline, which will be the first LCC to be based at Tokyo Narita International Airport, to commence operations in Aug-2012, subject to regulatory approvals. AirAsia Japan will be AirAsia's first venture outside Southeast Asia. ANA also plans to launch a Kansai-based LCC in early 2012, Peach, while there have been reports that a JAL-Jetstar LCC JV announcement is imminent.