Air India

CAPA India Outlook 2012/13: Critical uncertainty prevails. Possible Air India shutdown

Indian aviation is facing its most uncertain phase in more than a decade. After reporting an estimated record loss of just over USD2 billion[1] in the 12 months ended 31-Mar-2012, India’s airlines are facing an equally challenging year ahead. Weak balance sheets, increasing costs, regulatory uncertainty, a sluggish Indian economy and a difficult global environment will continue to pile the pressure on airlines, especially the poorer performing carriers. However, this may in turn create market opportunities to exploit for those that are better positioned. Some of the key highlights of the CAPA India Outlook 2012/13, to be released on 31-May-2012, include:

- Indian domestic capacity growth of 7-8% in FY2012/13, traffic to grow 8-10%

- India’s airlines expected to post a combined loss of USD1.3-1.4 billion

- Jet Airways to prosper; major aircraft order expected

- Kingfisher Airlines revival dependent on foreign airline investment

Melbourne and Sydney airports wage PR wars with strategic partnerships

The recent history of Australia's two main airports – Melbourne and Sydney – has been one of Melbourne being on the offensive to capture traffic that went to Sydney by default while Sydney sat back, even as its growth lagged that of its competitor. But that is no more. A revitalised Sydney airport, with the backing of a new government, is out to hold its place. That was evident at last week's annual Routes Asia forum where both Melbourne and Sydney took the opportunity to announce respective strategic partnerships to drum up support.

Kingfisher cuts international network to staunch losses, Virgin Atlantic to return to Mumbai

Amid continued turbulence in the aviation sector and considerable financial pressures, Kingfisher Airlines this week announced plans to end international services by 10-Apr-2012, with services to Dubai, Colombo, Kathmandu and Bangkok to be suspended on 25-Mar-2012, and services to its remaining four international destinations to be cancelled by 10-Apr-2012. Meanwhile, Virgin Atlantic has announced it will return to Mumbai, with daily service from London Heathrow from 28-Oct-2012.

Jet Airways-Jetstar interline positions carriers for growth in India, Southeast Asia and Australasia

A new interline agreement between India's Jet Airways and low-cost carrier Jetstar is a significant development for the two carriers and their respective markets. Jet Airways on a single ticket will be able to sell across Jetstar's network from Singapore, which predominantly includes points in Southeast and East Asia (where Jet Airways' network is thin) as well as Australia and New Zealand, where traffic flows to India may shift in the short/medium-term as Air India looks to commence direct flights and Virgin Australia works with new alliance partner Singapore Airlines.

The agreement further evolves Jetstar's hybrid model as Jet Airways passengers, like those of select oneworld carriers, will receive checked luggage and, on long-haul flights, meals and comfort kits on Jetstar flights as part of their ticket whereas other passengers have to pay separately. While this adds complexity and some are sceptical of LCCs moving away from a stripped-down model, blurring the lines and adding complexity is rational when yields and network enhancements outweigh the additional cost.

Financing of Indian airline losses approaching a dead-end

India’s beleaguered airline sector will increasingly have to seek innovative sources of funding as traditional options dry up. With the sector having already accumulated losses of USD6 billion in the last five years, which will be compounded by a record USD2.5 billion loss in the 12 months to 31-Mar-2012, existing providers of capital are increasingly nervous about the sector’s viability.  

India domestic passenger growth slows to 8% in Dec-2011; 2012 growth to slow from 16.6% in 2011

India’s domestic air passenger growth slowed to 8% in Dec-2011 to less than half the pace of growth experienced in calendar 2011 and down from the 17-22% growth rates seen between Jun-2011 and Oct-2011. While passenger numbers in India’s domestic market have seen growth now for 31 consecutive months, the result for Dec-2011 marks the end of 16 consecutive months of double-digit growth. This single-digit growth in the peak month of Dec-2011 (to 5.63 million passengers) is a sign that slowing economic growth is affecting air travel and reflects impending capacity caution by some of the nation’s largest players.

India’s domestic passenger numbers increased 16.6% to 60.7 million passengers in 2011, averaging out at 5.1 million passengers per month, and up 74% from 2006 levels. The largest stand-alone carrier was IndiGo with a 19.5% market share, with IndiGo also the fastest growing carrier in 2011.