All Nippon Airways

Japan Airlines' 17% margin may be envy of the industry, but JAL's outlook is less upbeat

Japan Airlines, with its recently achieved 17% operating margin, may be the antipode to Warren Buffet’s advice about investing in airlines, but JAL is not in an entirely enviable position. The forthcoming entry of low-cost carriers, if initially small in number, will soon have a seismic affect.

While JAL is so far more assiduously managing this new prospect than is competitor All Nippon Airways, it is showing signs of buckling.

Despite FY2012 offering growth and recovery from the tsunami and earthquake-affected FY2011, JAL projects profit to decrease. Recent months show JAL is growing capacity ahead of demand, which when combined with LCC proliferation will suppress profits in a doubtful market. JAL’s euphoria of a stellar year after its remarkable emergence from bankruptcy may be shortlived, for reasons beyond its control.

ANA – and Japan's transport system – appears oblivious to coming LCC impacts, which will be vast

All Nippon Airways (ANA) has reported a very strong financial result for the past year, despite severe headwinds in the wake of the Mar-2011 tsunami and nuclear disaster. This augurs well for the short term as new Boeing 787s arrive and international partnerships are forged with the carrier's Star Alliance partners.

But in its forward vision there appears very little to suggest management fully comprehends the likely impact the three new LCCs (as well as an expanding Skymark) will have on Japan's domestic and regional short/medium-haul markets. And, in Japan's carefully managed transport system, embracing its world class shinkansen high-speed rail and high quality toll roads, pricing instability is about to disrupt travel behaviour in ways seemingly not apparent to Tokyo's planners.

A quick look at what has happened elsewhere in the world, once truly low-cost airline operations arrive, should be enough to make any observer aware of the potential of adding three new LCCs to Japan's slumbering domestic market in the space of six months. But apparently not in Japan. As has been observed many times in this context: once this egg is scrambled, it does not go back in its shell.

Peach reports strong first month of LCC operations, but at expense of declining ANA traffic

Peach Aviation, the first of a new wave of low-cost carriers to enter Japan, has reported a solid first month of operations, carrying in Mar-2012 approximately 67,000 passengers across three routes with a load factor of 83%, above initial projections.

This traffic, however, has come at the expense of parent company All Nippon Airways (ANA), which saw year-on-year traffic and load factor declines above the system average. The negative story at the mainline operation is the same when measured against traffic in Mar-2010. While Peach is young and ANA's other LCC, AirAsia Japan, is yet to launch, the presence of traffic cannibalisation is evident. While this is not unexpected and ANA has planned for it, the level of cannibalisation appears to be above ANA's projections. It is a sign of the changing North Asia market, and a worry for ANA, which holds by far the largest share of domestic Japanese capacity – and plans domestic growth in coming years.

All Nippon Airways confident due to 2011 financial success but there are changes ahead

Japan's All Nippon Airways (ANA) has achieved the impressive accomplishment of posting a record profit not only in the current economic environment but in the year immediately after Japan’s Mar-2011 devastating earthquake and tsunami. ANA's JPY97 billion (USD1.2 billion) operating profit came on the back of international growth and early introduction of cost-cutting measures. While ANA may enjoy this momentum for another year or two, its medium- and long-term strategy is far from certain and could challenge the ability to repeat ANA's recent gains.

The Japanese market is about to undergo a significant structural shift with the introduction of LCCs that will reshape domestic and short-haul regional flights. ANA is fully aware of new LCCs – its subsidiary Peach was the first to market and ANA will shortly co-launch AirAsia Japan – its management plan has seemingly not taken the carriers into full consideration. Rival Japan Airlines is planning to decrease its exposure to the domestic market, already lower than at ANA, while ANA is planning to grow its LCC-exposed domestic network.

History suggests ANA's domestic strategy is in substantial need of revision.

Japan LCC era yet to enter full swing, but route cannibalisation starts

Japan's forthcoming boom in low-cost carriers has yet to enter full swing with AirAsia Japan and Jetstar Japan still to launch, but signs are now emerging of an early and direct affect LCCs will have on legacy carriers.

Japan Airlines (JAL) will suspend its Tokyo Narita-Osaka Kansai service in Jul-2012, the same month JAL-Qantas joint-venture Jetstar Japan will commence operations, including with a daily Tokyo Narita-Osaka Kansai service, increasing to double daily in Aug-2012.

Myanmar set to become Asia’s next big aviation growth market

Myanmar’s aviation market is poised to enter a major period of growth as the country begins to open up following landmark elections earlier this month that were won by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy. The election was seen as a turning point for Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, and the start of a more favourable business environment, including for aviation. Several Asian carriers and airport operators have identified near-term opportunities in Myanmar. The opportunities for all types of carriers – local and foreign, domestic and international, low-cost and full service – face no limitations in the medium term as the Myanmar market is now the most underserved market in ASEAN and perhaps all of Asia.

Myanmar’s two existing international airports, at Rangoon and Mandalay, are to be partially privatised while a recently opened new airport at the new capital of Naypyitaw will soon start to handle international flights. There are also plans for upgrading several domestic airports, many of which lack basic infrastructure.