Avianca Brazil

Continued erosion in Brazil’s domestic demand triggers stringent capacity discipline for Gol and TAM

Brazil’s two largest carriers Gol and TAM have further refined their already-reduced capacity guidance for 2012 as traffic growth in the country’s domestic sector continues at a much slower pace than during the last couple of years. The continued discipline is part of a broader effort that began in mid-2011 by the carriers to improve their yield performance. But the rebuilding process is progressing more slowly than each carrier would have liked as TAM has concluded customers in the Brazilian domestic market place are becoming more price adverse as the country’s economy is slowing from historically high growth levels during the last several years. Brazilian carriers are also facing added pressure from government-imposed increases in navigation and landing fees.

During 1Q2012 demand (RPKs) in the Brazilian domestic market grew just 7.3% on capacity growth of 11.3%. The growth in 1Q2012 is much slower than the 15.3% growth recorded year-over-year in 1Q2011 and the 33% growth during 1Q2010.

Brazil’s Gol and TAM continue domestic capacity restraint in attempt to improve yields

Brazilian low-cost carrier Gol has revised its domestic capacity plan for 2012 to a zero growth scenario and is hinting its domestic ASKs this year could even fall after growing by 7.4% in 2011. The country’s largest carrier, TAM, also plans less than 2% domestic capacity growth for 2012 after expanding its domestic ASKs by 9.5% in 2011. Both carriers are exhibiting capacity discipline in the hopes of continuing a yield recovery that began during 2H2011. But at the same time other domestic Brazilian operators, including Azul, Avianca Brazil and TRIP, continue to rapidly expand.

Gol revised its capacity forecast as it posted last week a BRL710 million (USD389 million) loss for 2011 and a negative 2.5% pre-tax margin. The losses were largely due to a 23% hike in the carrier’s fuel costs, currency fluctuations and non-recurring expenses related to aircraft returns.

Gol and new Gol domestic subsidiary Webjet have begun the process of cutting 80 to 100 daily domestic flights. This represents about 8% of their current combined offering of 1100 daily flights. Gol agreed to purchase Webjet in Jul-2011 and while the acquisition has not yet been completed, 87 days of Webjet's operation were included in Gol's 2011 results.

Avianca Brazil accelerates expansion as ex-LAN A318s and new A320s are added to fleet

Avianca Brazil is accelerating expansion as the carrier aims to regain market share in Brazil’s fast-growing domestic sector. Avianca Brazil, previously known as OceanAir, now plans to end 2011 with 26 aircraft, up from only 17 aircraft at the start of the year. At least another five aircraft will be added next year as Avianca Brazil has emerged as the unlikely new home for the 15 A318s exiting the fleet of rival Latin American airline group LAN.

Avianca Brazil president Jose Efromovich told CAPA at the sidelines of the ALTA Airline Leaders Forum earlier this month that the carrier has agreed to acquire all 15 of the A318s exiting LAN’s fleet. Mr Efromovich says five of the A318s have already been delivered to Avianca Brazil while five more will be delivered in 2012 and the final five aircraft will be come in 2013.

The 15 A318s are being remarketed by Airbus as LAN returns the aircraft in exchange for larger A320 family aircraft. Airbus was expected to have a very hard time finding new homes for the aircraft given the unpopularity of the A318 and the fact the LAN examples are powered by PW6000 engines – an engine type engine unique to LAN’s A318s.

Brazil airport privatisation plan comes under attack at ALTA forum

Brazil’s new plan for privatising three of its largest airports has already started to draw criticism from Latin American carriers as well as IATA and the Latin American airline association ALTA. The upcoming privatisation of Brasilia, Sao Paulo Guarulhos and Viracopos-Campinas airports was a hot topic at last week’s ALTA Airline Leaders Forum in Rio de Janeiro.

ALTA, which represents airlines throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, and IATA are concerned the three concessions as currently outlined will result in higher fees and a large chunk of the generated revenues not being reinvested in modernising the airports. But ALTA, IATA and the airlines in the region widely recognise the potential benefits of airport privatisation as Latin America struggles to cope with infrastructure challenges that are now threatening to curtail continued growth.

UPDATE: oneworld favoured with more at stake than Star in LAN-TAM alliance decision

(this article, which was initially published on 24-Sep-2011, has been updated to include initial LAN response, further discussion of TDLC measures and implications for Gol and SkyTeam)

The stage is set for the biggest global alliance selection of the decade as new airline group LATAM is being forced by Chile's anti-trust court to choose a single grouping. The decision by LATAM, the new parent company for oneworld’s LAN and Star’s TAM, will have huge ramifications as the winning alliance will be guaranteed a leading position in the fast-growing and increasingly important Latin American market. The more likely outcome is a oneworld victory, which would result in its share of capacity in the region increasing to 30% compared to approximately 15% for Star and 11% for SkyTeam.

Profitability in Brazilian domestic market plummets as yields drop

Intense competition in the Brazilian domestic market led to a sharp drop in yields in 2Q2011 and is expected to have a major impact on profitability throughout the Brazilian airline sector for the remainder of the year. Gol, which is primarily a domestic operator, has particularly been impacted by the suddenly unfavourable market conditions with a BRL359 million (USD221 million) net loss incurred in 2Q2011. TAM also has been impacted but has the benefit of a large profitable international operation, allowing it to remain in the black in 2Q2011.