Gol

Delta’s investment in Gol has SkyTeam and broader US-LatAm strategic implications

SkyTeam’s goal of recruiting Gol as a new member took one gigantic step forward this week with Delta Air Line’s acquisition of a minority stake in the Brazilian carrier. The deal also further separates Delta from its US peers as the airline continues to aggressively pursue a strategy of investing in carriers from Latin America and potentially other overseas markets. Other US major carriers have not yet duplicated this strategy but should be enticed to follow Delta’s lead given the opportunities which exist outside the mature US market.

Delta’s eagerness to invest outside North America first surfaced in late 2009, when it made an ultimately unsuccessful bid to acquire a stake in Japan Airlines while the oneworld carrier was restructuring under bankruptcy protection. Nearly two years later, in Aug-2011, Delta made a lower profile but equally significant move in agreeing to acquire a minority stake in fellow SkyTeam member Aeromexico. The USD65 million deal with Aeromexico will give Delta about a 4% share in its Mexican partner as well as a seat on Aeromexico’s board.

TAM plans US expansion in 2012 with B777-300ERs while Brazil domestic growth slows

Brazil’s TAM is planning further capacity expansion on US routes in 2012 as growth in the Brazilian domestic market shows signs of cooling down. The US expansion will be driven by the doubling of TAM’s B777-300ER fleet next year from four to eight aircraft. The B777-300ER, which is by far the largest aircraft type in TAM’s fleet, is now only used on European routes but will start to be deployed in the US during 2012.

Gol outlook brightens as Brazilian yields start to show signs of improvement

Despite a slower growth for Brazil’s economy, Gol is bullish on its outlook for 2012 as domestic yields, which dropped significantly earlier this year, are beginning to recover. Gol also expects to benefit in 2012 from a new cost reduction initiative, its recent acquisition of smaller low-cost carrier Webjet and its expanded partnership programme with other carriers. After incurring losses in 2Q2011 and 3Q2011, Gol will likely be back in the black in 4Q2011 and remain profitable throughout 2012.

Oct-2011 figures show Gol’s domestic yields are again tracking higher than 2010 levels. Gol executives told analysts last month during the carriers’ 3Q2011 conference call that yield improvements are expected to continue through 4Q2011 and into 2012 because the Brazilian airline industry overall have become more rational with fares and more disciplined with capacity.

Azul plans more rapid expansion, expects to capture 15% share of Brazilian market by end of 2012

Azul is planning more rapid expansion in 2012 despite the expected slowdown in the growth curve of the overall Brazilian market. The low-cost carrier, which so far this year has launched 14 new destinations while adding 17 aircraft, sees plenty of opportunities to further stimulate demand on secondary domestic routes where there is relatively limited service.

Azul is now Brazil’s third largest domestic carrier after Gol and TAM. Azul accounted for 8.4% of domestic RPKs through the first three quarters of 2011, according to data from Brazilian civil aviation authority ANAC. In 3Q2011, Azul’s share of the Brazilian market exceeded 9% for the first time.

Azul chairman David Neeleman told CAPA along the sidelines of the ALTA Airline Leader Forum in Brazil earlier this month that he expects the carrier will capture 15% of the market by the end of 2012.

Avianca-Sky tie-up and LAN-TAM alliance selection could lead to further consolidation in LatAm

The rivalry in Latin America between leading airline groups LATAM and Avianca-TACA has increased another notch following the establishment of a new alliance between Avianca-TACA and Chilean carrier Sky Airline. While relatively small, the tie-up forged this week between leading Colombian carrier Avianca and Sky could be a precursor to further consolidation in the region. Such consolidation will almost certainly follow alliance lines as LATAM, which will be formally established in late 1Q2012 once LAN and TAM complete their merger, is poised to opt for oneworld while Avianca-TACA is now in the process of joining Star Alliance.

Brazil airport privatisation plan comes under attack at ALTA forum

Brazil’s new plan for privatising three of its largest airports has already started to draw criticism from Latin American carriers as well as IATA and the Latin American airline association ALTA. The upcoming privatisation of Brasilia, Sao Paulo Guarulhos and Viracopos-Campinas airports was a hot topic at last week’s ALTA Airline Leaders Forum in Rio de Janeiro.

ALTA, which represents airlines throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, and IATA are concerned the three concessions as currently outlined will result in higher fees and a large chunk of the generated revenues not being reinvested in modernising the airports. But ALTA, IATA and the airlines in the region widely recognise the potential benefits of airport privatisation as Latin America struggles to cope with infrastructure challenges that are now threatening to curtail continued growth.