Japan Airlines

New Denver-Tokyo 787 service to help boost United's sagging trans-Pacific performance

United’s plans to launch new flights from its Denver hub to Tokyo Narita Airport in Mar-2013 with its 219-seat Boeing 787 comes at fortuitous timing. While North Asia-North America traffic has been growing, primarily at the behest of Asian carriers, United is the best positioned of US carriers to take part in this growth since it achieves the highest trans-Pacific yields. Combined with anti-trust immunity with Japan's All Nippon Airways (ANA), which is already showing benefits, and United's market leading position in the US, United will be able to grow the market.

Yet trans-Pacific yields are the lowest international ones for United, as it is with other US carriers. The trans-Pacific market does not have the strong corporate and leisure base of Europe or the VFR traffic of Latin America. With yield growth being more limited, the 787 will help the bottom line with its step change in efficiency, reducing costs. United will certainly not be the last carrier to take advantage of changing competitive dynamics.

Japan Airlines' 17% margin may be envy of the industry, but JAL's outlook is less upbeat

Japan Airlines, with its recently achieved 17% operating margin, may be the antipode to Warren Buffet’s advice about investing in airlines, but JAL is not in an entirely enviable position. The forthcoming entry of low-cost carriers, if initially small in number, will soon have a seismic affect.

While JAL is so far more assiduously managing this new prospect than is competitor All Nippon Airways, it is showing signs of buckling.

Despite FY2012 offering growth and recovery from the tsunami and earthquake-affected FY2011, JAL projects profit to decrease. Recent months show JAL is growing capacity ahead of demand, which when combined with LCC proliferation will suppress profits in a doubtful market. JAL’s euphoria of a stellar year after its remarkable emergence from bankruptcy may be shortlived, for reasons beyond its control.

All Nippon Airways confident due to 2011 financial success but there are changes ahead

Japan's All Nippon Airways (ANA) has achieved the impressive accomplishment of posting a record profit not only in the current economic environment but in the year immediately after Japan’s Mar-2011 devastating earthquake and tsunami. ANA's JPY97 billion (USD1.2 billion) operating profit came on the back of international growth and early introduction of cost-cutting measures. While ANA may enjoy this momentum for another year or two, its medium- and long-term strategy is far from certain and could challenge the ability to repeat ANA's recent gains.

The Japanese market is about to undergo a significant structural shift with the introduction of LCCs that will reshape domestic and short-haul regional flights. ANA is fully aware of new LCCs – its subsidiary Peach was the first to market and ANA will shortly co-launch AirAsia Japan – its management plan has seemingly not taken the carriers into full consideration. Rival Japan Airlines is planning to decrease its exposure to the domestic market, already lower than at ANA, while ANA is planning to grow its LCC-exposed domestic network.

History suggests ANA's domestic strategy is in substantial need of revision.

Japan LCC era yet to enter full swing, but route cannibalisation starts

Japan's forthcoming boom in low-cost carriers has yet to enter full swing with AirAsia Japan and Jetstar Japan still to launch, but signs are now emerging of an early and direct affect LCCs will have on legacy carriers.

Japan Airlines (JAL) will suspend its Tokyo Narita-Osaka Kansai service in Jul-2012, the same month JAL-Qantas joint-venture Jetstar Japan will commence operations, including with a daily Tokyo Narita-Osaka Kansai service, increasing to double daily in Aug-2012.

Jetstar Japan plans more aggressive launch than competitor Peach, reflecting Japanese LCC market

The launch schedule of Jetstar Japan, the LCC to commence services on 03-Jul-2012, is more aggressive than the Mar-2012 launch of competitor Peach, reflecting not only a market that will see tremendous and competitive growth in a very short period of time, but also the greater freedom enjoyed by the country's second wave of LCCs like Jetstar Japan.

While Jetstar in its first week will operate up to six daily return flights, one less than Peach launched with, the carrier will quickly ramp up operations, ending its first two months with 14 daily flights, more than the 11 daily flights Peach will have at the end of its first 3.5 months.

Jetstar Japan's launch will see four more of the world's 20 most populous routes have competition from LCCs, leaving only three routes served exclusively by full-service carriers in a reminder of greatly shifting tides. While LCC presence in China is the next objective, so too is domination: the world's most populous route is already controlled by LCCs. 

Jetstar Japan receives AOC and plans for 3-Jul-2012 launch as Narita to build new low-cost terminal

Jetstar Japan, a low cost airline joint venture between Qantas subsidiary Jetstar and Japan Airlines, received its Air Operator’s Certificate on 06-Apr-2012 from Japan’s regulatory authority the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT). The AOC will ensure Jetstar can achieve its recently announced launch of 03-Jul-2012, significantly ahead of the Dec-2012 launch date given when the carrier was announced last year. Next Jetstar Japan will commence proving flights and start ticket sales.

Jetstar Japan is one of three new LCCs to commence operating this year in Japan. All Nippon Airways’ LCC subsidiary, Peach, commenced operations on 01-Mar-2012 between Osaka Kansai and Sapporo New Chitose Airport. ANA also has another JV subsidiary, AirAsia Japan, due to commence operating in Aug-2012.

Meanwhile Narita Airport has announced it will build a dedicated LCC terminal, presumably to offer a more attractive proposition to the new industry. Although the airport previously discussed a LCC terminal, it offered no firm commitments or details. The new LCC terminal is expected to open in 2015 with other facilities available in the interim for both domestic and international flights.