Webjet

Continued erosion in Brazil’s domestic demand triggers stringent capacity discipline for Gol and TAM

Brazil’s two largest carriers Gol and TAM have further refined their already-reduced capacity guidance for 2012 as traffic growth in the country’s domestic sector continues at a much slower pace than during the last couple of years. The continued discipline is part of a broader effort that began in mid-2011 by the carriers to improve their yield performance. But the rebuilding process is progressing more slowly than each carrier would have liked as TAM has concluded customers in the Brazilian domestic market place are becoming more price adverse as the country’s economy is slowing from historically high growth levels during the last several years. Brazilian carriers are also facing added pressure from government-imposed increases in navigation and landing fees.

During 1Q2012 demand (RPKs) in the Brazilian domestic market grew just 7.3% on capacity growth of 11.3%. The growth in 1Q2012 is much slower than the 15.3% growth recorded year-over-year in 1Q2011 and the 33% growth during 1Q2010.

Brazil’s Gol and TAM continue domestic capacity restraint in attempt to improve yields

Brazilian low-cost carrier Gol has revised its domestic capacity plan for 2012 to a zero growth scenario and is hinting its domestic ASKs this year could even fall after growing by 7.4% in 2011. The country’s largest carrier, TAM, also plans less than 2% domestic capacity growth for 2012 after expanding its domestic ASKs by 9.5% in 2011. Both carriers are exhibiting capacity discipline in the hopes of continuing a yield recovery that began during 2H2011. But at the same time other domestic Brazilian operators, including Azul, Avianca Brazil and TRIP, continue to rapidly expand.

Gol revised its capacity forecast as it posted last week a BRL710 million (USD389 million) loss for 2011 and a negative 2.5% pre-tax margin. The losses were largely due to a 23% hike in the carrier’s fuel costs, currency fluctuations and non-recurring expenses related to aircraft returns.

Gol and new Gol domestic subsidiary Webjet have begun the process of cutting 80 to 100 daily domestic flights. This represents about 8% of their current combined offering of 1100 daily flights. Gol agreed to purchase Webjet in Jul-2011 and while the acquisition has not yet been completed, 87 days of Webjet's operation were included in Gol's 2011 results.

Gol outlook brightens as Brazilian yields start to show signs of improvement

Despite a slower growth for Brazil’s economy, Gol is bullish on its outlook for 2012 as domestic yields, which dropped significantly earlier this year, are beginning to recover. Gol also expects to benefit in 2012 from a new cost reduction initiative, its recent acquisition of smaller low-cost carrier Webjet and its expanded partnership programme with other carriers. After incurring losses in 2Q2011 and 3Q2011, Gol will likely be back in the black in 4Q2011 and remain profitable throughout 2012.

Oct-2011 figures show Gol’s domestic yields are again tracking higher than 2010 levels. Gol executives told analysts last month during the carriers’ 3Q2011 conference call that yield improvements are expected to continue through 4Q2011 and into 2012 because the Brazilian airline industry overall have become more rational with fares and more disciplined with capacity.

Sao Paulo dominates Brazil's busiest domestic and international routes

Sao Paulo Guarulhos International Airport is Latin America's busiest international hub, but ranks only 57th in the world by international seats per week (or 24th by ASKs). Guarulhos is also Latin America's biggest domestic hub, ranking 35th in the world by domestic seats per week. Guarulhos is one of seven Brazilian airports among the world's top 100 domestic airports (by seats) but is the only Brazilian airport in the international top 100. This shows Brazil's market still remains very much a domestic-dominated market – similar to China.

Profitability in Brazilian domestic market plummets as yields drop

Intense competition in the Brazilian domestic market led to a sharp drop in yields in 2Q2011 and is expected to have a major impact on profitability throughout the Brazilian airline sector for the remainder of the year. Gol, which is primarily a domestic operator, has particularly been impacted by the suddenly unfavourable market conditions with a BRL359 million (USD221 million) net loss incurred in 2Q2011. TAM also has been impacted but has the benefit of a large profitable international operation, allowing it to remain in the black in 2Q2011.

More rapid growth for Brazil's domestic aviation market

Brazil’s domestic market continues to chalk up impressive growth rates, driven by expansion at both low-cost and full-service carriers. Newly released traffic figures from Brazil’s ANAC shows domestic RPKs were up 21.4% for 1H2011, which follows equally impressive growth of 23.5% in 2010.