Zest Air

Cebu Pacific & AirPhil are main beneficiaries as Philippines domestic LCC penetration rate nears 80%

The low-cost carrier penetration rate in the fast-growing domestic Philippine market is about to reach 80%, a remarkable achievement and a figure unprecedented in the global aviation industry. An LCC penetration rate of 85% is even plausible in the foreseeable future as Philippine LCCs, led by Cebu Pacific and AirPhil Express, are rapidly expanding domestically while flag carrier Philippine Airlines (PAL) continues to reduce domestic capacity.

LCC competition in the Philippine international market is expected to increase significantly, driven primarily by the launch of AirAsia Philippines, which was originally planned for this month but has encountered last second delays. Domestic competition, however, is not likely to increase as AirAsia Philippines and the proposed Tiger Airways-SEAir joint venture face uphill battles in their attempt to secure authorisations for domestic operations. While international routes linking the Philippines with other Asian countries could see intense competition from five or more LCCs, the domestic market will likely be served by two or at most three LCCs in future.

AirAsia Philippines impact on Cebu Pacific & PAL should be minimal – at least initially

Cebu Pacific, which has remained in the black in 1H2011 despite soaring fuel costs, does not expect the Oct-2011 launch of AirAsia Group’s new Philippine affiliate to curtail its growth or impact its profitability. Philippine Airlines (PAL), which was back in the red for the three months ending 30-Jun-2011, should also not be significantly impacted by AirAsia’s entry into the dynamic Philippine aviation market although the flag carrier continues to struggle against some of its existing low-cost competitors including Cebu Pacific.

Jetstar's new North Asia focus leaves room for Qantas Singapore expansion to Europe and India

Jetstar is planning to expand its Singapore-based fleet by 50% over the next six months as the low-cost carrier group looks to North Asia for the next phase of its dramatic expansion. As the largest low-cost airline group in the Asia-Pacific region continues to expand at a rate of about 20% per annum, additional capacity will not be directed west towards South Asia, the Middle East or Europe but primarily to North Asia, where Jetstar sees the most opportunities given North Asia’s very low LCC penetration rate. This strategy could signal growth for the Qantas brand in South Asia and Europe as the group looks at potentially announcing next month the launch of a new Singapore-based full-service carrier.