Adelaide Airport

Australian aviation market shows signs of slowdown just as airlines were enjoying yield premiums

There are now clear signs the Australian aviation market is entering a light slowdown, with carriers adding capacity ahead of demand while airfares decline marginally. This will affect the region's carriers differently and they should all fare better than counterparts elsewhere in the world; notably, the market in Australia is still growing, but not as fast. Most exposed are Qantas mainline and Tiger Airways Australia. The former has been slowly losing some corporate business to Virgin Australia and competes with a higher cost base.

Tiger is suffering from group-wide over-capacity and would not be able to redeploy capacity as readily. Unlike Tiger, Jetstar has a healthy and rapidly growing pan-Asian network that can absorb any surplus capacity and at a higher margin even than in Australia. Virgin Australia is seeing yield growth from its transition to a business carrier, growth that should overcome any weakness in the more leisure-exposed areas of its business.

AirAsia X continues concentration theme with Christchurch withdrawal as ultra-long-haul loses favour

AirAsia X is continuing to act on its concentration plan to build scale in key markets rather than spread itself out. The Kuala Lumpur-based low-cost long-haul carrier is withdrawing services to Christchurch and increasing capacity to Perth and Taipei. The withdrawal from Christchurch is despite high load factors, indicating – as with the carrier's withdrawals from London and Paris – the problem is of yield on ultra-long-haul sectors where an LCC's lower cost base has less advantage as fuel comprises a greater share of costs than on shorter sectors.

The withdrawal of four-weekly services to Christchurch, effective at the end of May-2012, will remove AirAsia X's longest flight, leaving all other services – primarily to Australia and North Asia – in a five-to-eight hour range. Previously the carrier's longest flights were to Paris and London, although operated with A340s instead of A330s to Christchurch, but AirAsia X announced in Jan-2012 that Paris and London would be suspended by the end of Mar-2012.

In selecting Gold Coast over China as its second destination, Scoot again goes with low risk option

New Singapore Airlines (SIA) low-cost long-haul carrier Scoot announced today Gold Coast as its second destination after Sydney and confirmed its intention to launch services in Jun-2012. Scoot has decided to launch with two routes to Australia because the process of securing authorisations for China, which Scoot has said will also be served within its first year, is longer and more unpredictable. Gold Coast was selected over two other Australian airports on Scoot’s short list, Adelaide and Brisbane, because of Gold Coast’s excellent track record of success with LCCs, including Asia’s two existing low-cost long-haul carriers – AirAsia X and Jetstar. Gold Coast is also the largest airport in Australia currently lacking a link with Singapore.   

Gold Coast is the fifth largest international airport in Australia behind Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth (see Background information). Among Australia’s top airports it has by far the highest LCC penetration rate. Currently LCCs account for 98% of total capacity (seats) at Gold Coast, including 90% of international capacity and nearly 100% of domestic capacity.

Tiger Australia looks to future but risks forgetting past

Tiger Airways Australia has a clear message about its future after the end of a six-week grounding: it is effectively starting over with the aim to build a foundation it can expand from without the safety and operational immaturity that resulted from growing capacity but not associated safety support, a past it does not want to talk about. But to achieve its new objective, Tiger must remember and continue to address its mistakes, as doing so is the first step in the long track towards profitability.

Tiger Airways returns to fundamentals after reprieve in Australia

Faced with severe regulatory restraints following the lifting of a six-week grounding of services, Tiger Airways Australia is drastically simplifying its operation to focus on a single hub at Melbourne Tullamarine and only serving the popular Sydney route. As the airline returns to the skies on 12-Aug-2011, Tiger will suspend 14 routes and drop 10 destinations. This month Tiger will only operate 14% of its pre-grounding flights, but this represents only 8% of its pre-grounding available seat kilometres (ASK). But the carrier is to remain in Australia - perhaps with a re-brand.

Jetstar's new North Asia focus leaves room for Qantas Singapore expansion to Europe and India

Jetstar is planning to expand its Singapore-based fleet by 50% over the next six months as the low-cost carrier group looks to North Asia for the next phase of its dramatic expansion. As the largest low-cost airline group in the Asia-Pacific region continues to expand at a rate of about 20% per annum, additional capacity will not be directed west towards South Asia, the Middle East or Europe but primarily to North Asia, where Jetstar sees the most opportunities given North Asia’s very low LCC penetration rate. This strategy could signal growth for the Qantas brand in South Asia and Europe as the group looks at potentially announcing next month the launch of a new Singapore-based full-service carrier.