Osaka Kansai International Airport

ANA – and Japan's transport system – appears oblivious to coming LCC impacts, which will be vast

All Nippon Airways (ANA) has reported a very strong financial result for the past year, despite severe headwinds in the wake of the Mar-2011 tsunami and nuclear disaster. This augurs well for the short term as new Boeing 787s arrive and international partnerships are forged with the carrier's Star Alliance partners.

But in its forward vision there appears very little to suggest management fully comprehends the likely impact the three new LCCs (as well as an expanding Skymark) will have on Japan's domestic and regional short/medium-haul markets. And, in Japan's carefully managed transport system, embracing its world class shinkansen high-speed rail and high quality toll roads, pricing instability is about to disrupt travel behaviour in ways seemingly not apparent to Tokyo's planners.

A quick look at what has happened elsewhere in the world, once truly low-cost airline operations arrive, should be enough to make any observer aware of the potential of adding three new LCCs to Japan's slumbering domestic market in the space of six months. But apparently not in Japan. As has been observed many times in this context: once this egg is scrambled, it does not go back in its shell.

Peach reports strong first month of LCC operations, but at expense of declining ANA traffic

Peach Aviation, the first of a new wave of low-cost carriers to enter Japan, has reported a solid first month of operations, carrying in Mar-2012 approximately 67,000 passengers across three routes with a load factor of 83%, above initial projections.

This traffic, however, has come at the expense of parent company All Nippon Airways (ANA), which saw year-on-year traffic and load factor declines above the system average. The negative story at the mainline operation is the same when measured against traffic in Mar-2010. While Peach is young and ANA's other LCC, AirAsia Japan, is yet to launch, the presence of traffic cannibalisation is evident. While this is not unexpected and ANA has planned for it, the level of cannibalisation appears to be above ANA's projections. It is a sign of the changing North Asia market, and a worry for ANA, which holds by far the largest share of domestic Japanese capacity – and plans domestic growth in coming years.

Japan LCC era yet to enter full swing, but route cannibalisation starts

Japan's forthcoming boom in low-cost carriers has yet to enter full swing with AirAsia Japan and Jetstar Japan still to launch, but signs are now emerging of an early and direct affect LCCs will have on legacy carriers.

Japan Airlines (JAL) will suspend its Tokyo Narita-Osaka Kansai service in Jul-2012, the same month JAL-Qantas joint-venture Jetstar Japan will commence operations, including with a daily Tokyo Narita-Osaka Kansai service, increasing to double daily in Aug-2012.

Jetstar-JAL LCC, "Jetstar Japan" to commence service by Dec-2012

Japan Airlines Corp, Jetstar Airways and Mitsubishi Corp confirmed plans to establish a LCC JV in the Japan market by Dec-2012. Jetstar Japan will be Japan's third new LCC announced this year, following hard off the heels of All Nippon Airways' announcement last month that it plans to establish a JV with leading low cost airline AirAsia, AirAsia Japan, in addition to its previously announced LCC, Peach. The JAL JV would add another piece to the complex jigsaw that is now transforming the Asian airline market. The potential market growth as these successive ventures are introduced can be measured in the hundreds of millions of new passengers. Removal of highly restrictive regulatory conditions and the scale of opportunities as new city pair market options emerge mean literally that the sky is the limit for growth upsides.

LCCs ready for take-off; carriers prepare for Boeing B787 deliveries

LCC start-ups dominated airline news this week. Air Canada revealed it is drawing up a business plan to launch an LCC in response to its fast-growing low-cost rivals such as WestJet, Porter Airlines, Air Transat and Sunwing in the Canadian market, according to reports.