Low Cost Carriers (LCCs)

Greek carriers fight an ominous jumble of recession, euro-woes and market fragmentation

Greece’s airlines are operating in an unsympathetic environment shaped by four consecutive years of economic recession and austerity measures, worries about a possible exit from the eurozone and a fragmented market with the largest carrier holding a mere 33% capacity share. The situation is untenable and revives the discussion if the European Commission (EC) in Jan-2011 took the right decision in blocking the proposed merger between Aegean Airlines and Olympic Air.

Both of Greece’s major carriers are loss making and Olympic, which had high hopes to become Greece’s new national carrier after it bought some of the assets of the state-owned and de facto-bankrupt flag carrier Olympic Airlines, was forced to refocus its strategy towards regional operations to survive. Olympic’s passenger numbers fell 23% in 2011 to 3.4 million from 4.4 million in 2010.

Milan Malpensa is trying to gel low-cost and full service to rebuild its lost glory

Milan Malpensa Airport is betting on low-cost carriers as well as full service carriers to restore its lost glory but it will not be able to rebuild a hub owing to its lack of a local network carrier. LCCs now represent about 50% of total seat capacity at the airport while Alitalia accounts for only 4% of capacity as it has shrunk its Milan network to only seven routes, according to data from Innovata. Including its LCC subsidiary Air One Smart Carrier, Alitalia offers less than 13% of Malpensa’s total seat capacity, which is not sufficient to fulfil a possible hub operator role. Most noteworthy is the decline of Malpensa as a transatlantic gateway.

Malpensa used to be a thriving Alitalia hub with the airline serving over 80 routes from the North Italian airport, including 10 transatlantic routes. But the Italian flag carrier’s bankruptcy at the end 2008 and its restructuring under new private ownership from 2009 changed its fortunes. Alitalia now only operates two transatlantic routes from Malpensa while US carriers have also dropped several routes to Milan in recent years.

Postponed opening of Berlin Brandenburg causing the summer blues for Lufthansa and Air Berlin

Berlin Brandenburg Airport’s announcement that it will not open its EUR2.5 billion new premises as scheduled on 03-Jun-2012 is leading to major operational challenges for all involved, but in particular Lufthansa and Air Berlin which would be the largest operators at the new airport and had planned significant network expansions and new procedures. The delay, which is expected to be several months long, is above all bad news for Air Berlin which had aimed to cement its new strategic positioning as full service network carrier and oneworld member with the opening of the German capital’s new airport.

Low-cost carriers will be the least affected as their drive for low airport costs exceeds the need for enlarged and architectural attractive airport capacity. LCCs also remain outside the public relations contest to participate in the opening of Germany’s prestigious capital airport.

ANA – and Japan's transport system – appears oblivious to coming LCC impacts, which will be vast

All Nippon Airways (ANA) has reported a very strong financial result for the past year, despite severe headwinds in the wake of the Mar-2011 tsunami and nuclear disaster. This augurs well for the short term as new Boeing 787s arrive and international partnerships are forged with the carrier's Star Alliance partners.

But in its forward vision there appears very little to suggest management fully comprehends the likely impact the three new LCCs (as well as an expanding Skymark) will have on Japan's domestic and regional short/medium-haul markets. And, in Japan's carefully managed transport system, embracing its world class shinkansen high-speed rail and high quality toll roads, pricing instability is about to disrupt travel behaviour in ways seemingly not apparent to Tokyo's planners.

A quick look at what has happened elsewhere in the world, once truly low-cost airline operations arrive, should be enough to make any observer aware of the potential of adding three new LCCs to Japan's slumbering domestic market in the space of six months. But apparently not in Japan. As has been observed many times in this context: once this egg is scrambled, it does not go back in its shell.

Jazeera Airways and Air Arabia stick to their models and report double-digit increases in profits

Business is booming for LCCs in the Middle East. The two oldest low-cost airlines in the region – Air Arabia and Jazeera Airways – have both reported profitable first quarters, as the regional political environment cools and oil prices begin to trend back from their highs earlier in the year.

Both airlines have positive outlooks for this year. Jazeera Airways just reported its seventh consecutive quarterly profit – a record run of profitability for the airline – and aims to continue the success with its new strategic management plan (STAMP). Air Arabia achieved a double-digit increase in profit during the first quarter and the carrier plans to continue to enter new markets and launch new business ventures this year.

Luxembourg opening to LCC competition with the entry of easyJet

The tiny Luxembourg market has been thrust into the spotlight by easyJet’s announcement that it plans to launch the first low-cost carrier service into the small European nation. With no domestic market in Luxembourg, national carrier Luxair relies on a short/medium-haul international network serving Europe and Africa. The arrival of LCC competition will place pressure on the flag carrier, which may find it difficult to compete with budget rivals.

Luxair, which is the only Luxembourg-based passenger carrier, currently offers 36,285 seats per week, according to data from Innovata. Western Europe accounts for about 90% of the carrier’s total capacity (seats) and all 10 of the carrier’s largest routes.

The Middle East continues powerfully on thanks to the Gulf carriers, despite some setbacks

The Gulf carriers continued to go from strength to strength in 2011; Etihad made its first (narrow) profit and Emirates again returned the strongest result of any airline globally, even though it was substantially affected by increased fuel prices.

The three major sixth freedom hubs in the Middle East – Abu Dhabi, Doha and Dubai – added 7.7 million passengers between them in 2011, continuing strong growth, despite the regional disruptions. Much of this is testament to the strength of the home carriers, the industry-aligned development policies pursued at each airport and the vision of local governments to transform their cities into major aviation centres. (The contrast with European governments is extreme, as they meanwhile continue to see the sector as a taxation target, to the great detriment of the industry there.)

JetBlue continues to see benefits and growth opportunities from its hybrid business model

Since its inception more than 12 years ago, JetBlue has undergone a fundamental shift in its business model to become one of the few carriers to achieve true hybrid status: low fares with frills. It has firmly entrenched itself in luring business travellers through a small corporate sales force and built up its network in Boston to largely cater to the more lucrative corporate traveller. This shift in strategy was primarily undertaken to even out the dramatic peaks and troughs JetBlue experienced with its leisure-focused model, and was also accompanied by a push into Latin American and the Caribbean to introduce markets with a strong base of visiting friends and relatives traffic (VFR) that JetBlue concludes is somewhat recession proof. At the same time, it has aggressively added interline partners that help to boost its passenger numbers and smooth out the revenue troughs it can experience during slow travel periods.

But that strategy is not without critics. JetBlue’s growth rates during the last few years have raised eyebrows when most carriers have constantly refined their capacity growth to near zero or have actually shrank their supply.

LCCs grab 10% of seats in the Middle East, but growth is slowing

The LCC phenomenon in the Middle East is entering the home stretch of its first decade. The importance of the LCC market in the Middle East has grown steadily since the launch of the region’s first LCC flights by Air Arabia in Oct-2003, but the growth has not been as high as initially anticipated, as carriers can attest to.

Just four airlines make up the regional LCC market – Air Arabia, flydubai, Jazeera Airways and NAS Air. Air Arabia also has two subsidiary carriers – Air Arabia Maroc, launched in 2007, and Air Arabia Egypt, launched in 2010. A third, based in Jordan, has been on hold for several years.

There are also some smaller carriers in the region that are filling the gap between LCCs and full service airlines. Bahrain Air markets itself as a “premium value” carrier, including some LCC elements in its model but also offering two seating classes – including an all-new business class cabin – and a correspondingly greater emphasis on service and product levels. RAK Airways, based in the UAE emirate of Ras Al Khaimah, also has low cost elements, but like Bahrain Air has adopted a hybrid model between full service and low-cost airlines.

Pegasus focuses on Eastern Europe and rapid fleet expansion as Turkish economy grows

Turkey’s second largest carrier, Pegasus Airlines, is steadily expanding its network with a focus on nearby Eastern Europe as demand in the Turkish market continues to grow rapidly. Based at Sabiha Gökçen International Airport in Istanbul, the privately-owned airline operates an extensive European and domestic Turkish network while also offering some services to the Middle East and Central Asia. Until recently Pegasus’ focus has been primarily on its domestic Turkish and international routes to Western Europe, but this is beginning to change. Eastern Europe is becoming the airline’s main focus with a number of new destinations added in recent months.

Taiwan's EVA Air confirmed as new Star member, considers converting UNI Air subsidiary to an LCC

Taiwan’s EVA Air formally signed on 29-Mar-2012 with Star Alliance to join the grouping after Star’s Chief Executive Board unanimously accepted the carrier's membership application. Wholly owned regional subsidiary UNI Air, however, will not be joining Star and EVA President KW Chang has instead revealed is was a possibility that UNI may be converted to a low-cost carrier.

As Asia’s network airlines quickly establish their own LCC subsidiaries, the pressure mounts on others to follow suit and EVA is apparently no exception. In a clear sign that the flurry of LCC subsidiary announcements by other airline groups in Asia was influencing EVA management thinking, Mr Chang Kuo-wei said “it is one thing we are thinking of, but it is only a possibility this stage”. While it ponders a possible new short-haul LCC strategy, EVA hopes to leverage its Star Alliance membership to expand on long-haul routes.