Analysis Reports

Iberia received its seventh Airbus A321XLR in early Jan-2026. Narrowbodies have historically been deployed on short/medium haul routes, but the extra-long range of the XLR justifies its inclusion in Iberia's long haul fleet count.

In Jun-2025 Iberia revealed its 'Flight Plan', setting out its strategic aims to the mid 2030s. These include increasing its long haul aircraft numbers to approximately 70.

More recently, Iberia CEO Marco Sansivini has reported an interim target of 59 long haul aircraft by 2030, versus 49 today.

Iberia's A321XLR fleet is now almost complete, with one more due for delivery in 2026. Its total of eight long haul narrowbodies compares with its current widebody fleet of 42 aircraft, with nine more A350-900s expected by 2030.

The XLR accounts for a minority of Iberia's long haul fleet, for which trans Atlantic destinations in Latin America and North America are the main focus.

Nevertheless, it has already become an important tool in opening new markets on thinner routes and in adding frequencies to existing destinations.

For decades, airline management has been defined by an almost ritualistic response to downturns: cut capacity, defer investment, shrink the workforce and wait for demand to return.

This session from the CAPA Airline Leader Summit - World, held in Dec-2025, examined whether that playbook is finally being retired.

Drawing on the perspectives of airline leaders from Europe, the Middle East, North America and small-island markets, the discussion explored how airlines are increasingly managing volatility with greater discipline, data sophistication and strategic confidence.

Despite slowing macroeconomic growth, persistent geopolitical tensions and fragile consumer sentiment, industry expectations entering 2026 remain notably resilient. Balance sheets are stronger than in previous cycles, fleet flexibility has improved, and network planning has become far more dynamic.

Recent examples include airlines maintaining capacity through regional conflicts, absorbing fuel price volatility without panic responses, and continuing targeted investment in premium cabins, loyalty platforms and digital distribution even as yields soften.

The session also addressed the limits of this new resilience. Structural weaknesses remain, particularly around supply chain fragility, labour constraints and uneven access to capital across regions. Leaders debated how to calibrate responses when the depth and duration of a downturn are unclear, and how to avoid overreacting to short-term signals.

Finally, the discussion assessed the growing role of advanced analytics and AI in crisis management. While decision-support tools are increasingly central to scenario planning and network optimisation, the session underscored the ongoing risk of data overload and false precision.

The emerging consensus: cyclicality may not be dead, but airlines are learning how to live with it far more rationally than ever before.

Numerous attempts have been made to attract at least a partial level of privatisation to Romania's airports over the past decade or so, but without much success.

One exception was a private organisation operating under the auspices of the government, which exists to compensate individuals whose properties were confiscated during the communist regime - namely Fondul Proprietatea (FP). It was a 20% shareholder in CNAB, the operator in the two main airports in Bucharest.

But following what now seems to have been a rash statement encouraging an IPO on the airports made in Nov-2025, FP has been summarily removed from its ownership equity.

Essentially, the state has renationalised the airport, and not for the first time in recent years in this part of the world.

There is an exception to every rule, and here that is the Avant Alexeni Airport which is under construction close to Bucharest, together with a Ukrainian company; Avant being the operator.

It will be a serious challenge to the two state-operated airports, especially in the freight field.

The irony is that with such a degree of recent interest in Eastern European airports by major investors and operators (and despite previous privatisation failures over the years in that region), Bucharest's Henri Coandă International Airport (a.k.a. Otopeni Airport) at least would be an attractive proposition to them.

Israel's airline capacity is back on a post-pandemic recovery path, after withstanding declines during the period of conflict following the Oct-2023 Hamas attacks. In mid Jan-2026, seat numbers are at 112% of the equivalent period of 2019.

El Al remains the biggest airline by seats in Israel, with a projected capacity share of 28% in the first six months of 2026. However, the return of international airlines means increased low cost competition.

Wizz Air Group is the largest non-local operator - and the largest low cost operator - in Israel, which is a profitable market for the ULCC. It is in talks with the Israeli government about establishing bases at Tel Aviv and Eilat. Subject to resolving regulatory and other issues, in particular safety and security requirements, Wizz Air hopes to implement these plans from Mar-2026.

Significant geopolitical risks continue to overhang Israel's aviation market and any return to conflict would likely interrupt its renewed growth path.

The decision by Allegiant Air to acquire Sun Country Airlines may have caught the US airline aviation industry off guard, but the more surprising aspect of that development is that those two airlines were the first to kick off consolidation in the country's low-cost sector.

At the end of 2025 most of the attention centred on off-again/on-again talks between Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines, which appeared to restart as the year came to a close.

Allegiant and Sun Country's plan to merge has received a nearly overwhelmingly positive response, and their proposed combination should easily gain requisite regulatory approvals.

Their decision to combine is also well timed, as their larger scale should give the airline more depth and breadth to target those customers left behind in the USA's K-shaped economy.

One key to the success of the planned merger is Allegiant and Sun Country executing their similar business strategies on a larger scale while staying out of the crosshairs of the largest US airlines - in other words, remaining in their lane.

For now, the airlines are showing no indications of deviating from what works.

The incidence of private sector engagement in the airport sector in the CIS countries in West Asia, the remnant of the old Soviet days in the region, is growing fast.

So far, Azerbaijan has not joined the party, although some preliminary talks are understood to have taken place with entities that could participate in PPP projects.

The country's main airport, at the capital Baku, is owned fully by the state and operated by the state-owned airline, AZAL.

It isn't "in a state"; in fact it has won Skytrax awards, the most recent one in 2024.

But Azerbaijan's president wants to double overseas tourist visits, and as part of that he is looking towards a new terminal building at Baku.

The country sits in a region where new terminals are increasingly commonplace, and many of them are funded by private concerns. Is now the time for Azerbaijan to join them?

There is also the question of how Baku might provide help with a sudden increase in travel to and from Iran if the regime there should fall. While relations have been strained in the past, Iranian aviation is not in a good place to pick up the threads quickly.

This report also chronicles the degree of airport privatisation in the CIS and neighbouring countries, with examples.

The Korean Air parent Hanjin Group is taking preparatory steps towards the integration of its LCC subsidiaries, a move that will shake up the South Korean LCC sector.

Hanjin Group now has three LCC holdings, after acquiring Air Busan and Air Seoul as part of its acquisition of Asiana Airlines. These three will be merged with Korean Air's LCC subsidiary, Jin Air.

The combined airline will operate under the Jin Air brand, and integration is expected to be completed by the first quarter of 2027.

By combining the fleets and networks, Jin Air will become South Korea's largest LCC.

There are currently eight South Korean-based LCCs, according to CAPA - Centre for Aviation: in addition to the Hanjin Group airlines, there are Jeju Air, Eastar Jet, T'Way, Aero K and the newcomer - Parata Air.

There are also 16 overseas-based LCCs serving South Korea.

LCCs made up 51.7% of domestic LCC seats in this market in 2025, and 41.9% of international seats - which represent relatively high levels.

The merger will undoubtedly make Jin Air a stronger player in the LCC sector. But the Korean LCC market is vibrant, and it will remain so after the integration of Jin Air, Air Busan and Air Seoul.

It could be argued that the LCC market in Korea was ripe for consolidation, and more mergers are not out of the question.

Airbus' 2025 delivery of 793 aircraft was almost one third more than Boeing's 600. Having held its guidance of 820 deliveries for 11 months, Airbus cut this to 790 in early Dec-2025, and then managed to beat the lower number.

The European OEM has now outsold its US rival for seven consecutive years.

Moreover, Airbus' installed fleet is 16% bigger than Boeing's, and its order backlog is 35% more than Boeing's.

At 2025 delivery rates, the global aerospace industry will need almost 14 years to clear the log jam of outstanding passenger aircraft orders.

This report presents data on passenger aircraft deliveries and the order backlog, both on a global scale and for the two leading manufacturers.

Aviation demand has rebounded faster and more structurally than many expected, yet the industry's ability to respond remains constrained by two stubborn bottlenecks: aircraft availability and infrastructure capacity.

This CAPA Airline Leader Summit - World session brought together senior leaders from airports, regulators, ANSPs, airlines, finance and advanced air mobility to examine how these imbalances can be addressed before they hard-wire inefficiency into the next growth cycle. The discussion ranged from OEM delivery delays and MRO capacity shortages to uneven airport investment and air traffic management fragility.

Aircraft supply remains constrained by ongoing supply chain disruptions, engine durability issues and production discipline challenges at the major manufacturers, leaving airlines unable to fully capitalise on strong passenger demand.

At the same time, airports and ATC systems are diverging sharply: while markets such as the Middle East, India and parts of Southeast Asia are expanding aggressively, others in Europe and mature economies are grappling with runway limits, staffing shortages, regulatory complexity and political resistance to growth.

Panellists highlighted that the issue is no longer simply one of funding, but of governance, regulation and strategic alignment.

The session underscored the need for cost-effective infrastructure, smarter regulation, realistic sustainability pathways and closer coordination across the aviation ecosystem.

With demand expected to remain resilient through the second half of the decade, the debate made clear that without decisive action, capacity constraints risk becoming a permanent drag on economic and aviation growth.

The difficulties that the operators of African airports (usually governments) have in attracting foreign investment are well documented. They range from inadequate route networks, to poor airline business type mixes, to lack of non-aeronautical revenue streams, to lack of transparency, to trade union opposition to corruption.

Occasionally an opportunity arises that bucks the trend of such negativity, and even offers the prospect of being a tipping point beyond which African airports can be taken seriously by western investors.

One of them has been the new Bugesera Airport, a facility to serve Kigali, the Rwandan capital, but that is taking a long time to build.

Now it looks as certain as anything can be in Africa that the Abusera/Bishoftu airport will be built near Addis Ababa. Groundbreaking took place on 10-Jan-2026, marking the beginning of the first phase of development.

It will complement the existing Bole airport, which was the third busiest in Africa in 2025.

While not intended to replace Bole, its price tag of USD10 billion-12.5 billion (as much as the new Mexico City airport would have cost, had it been completed) suggests that it will do that eventually.

Ethiopian Airlines believes Bole has become too small and overcrowded, that it has been expanding the airport for several decades, but it has reached the point where further upgrades are impossible.

Now the search is on for funding, to ensure that it does not meet the same fate as the Mexico airport. That funding could come in the form of debt, equity and loans and numerous promises have been made already.

A road show held in Morocco in Dec-2025 garnered some positive feedback and interest. But so did one for the Bugesera greenfield airport in Rwanda in 2016, and that isn't finished yet, a decade later.

What it needs is a cornerstone investor to be installed rapidly, but such entities usually want a slice of the action in the form of a large slug of the equity.